The Lamest Attempt to Predict Release Date of Winds of Winter? Practically #JennyMath

If there is one site Jenny could hate more than BoxOfficeMojo, it is Nate Silver’s 538. That site exists to quantify EVERYTHING, so it is all math, all the time. When they tried recently to apply modeling to the madness that is George RR Martin’s writing patterns, it was a big whiff.

I love 538.  I an a numbers guy and I love how effective data CAN enable smart decision making.  The site focuses generally on sports and elections, both things I follow closely, and most of the time I am right there with them.  Sometimes they take their quantitative modeling and apply it to weird things.  Look, as an editor of a daily website, I understand you’ve gotta fill that void with content, but sometimes you really miss the boat.

miss the boat

Of course, here I am filling OUR daily content with an article about an article that shouldn’t have been written, so judge me as you wish.


538 uses Martin’s love of NY area pro football and his status/mood updates as the basis for their quantitative analysis, which ultimately leads them to conclude:

When will George R. R. Martin come out with the next book? I have no idea. The stats tell us essentially nothing. The good news for fans is that he’s in Santa Fe with a pretty clear schedule. The worst news is that my most promising finding is that he’s excited. As always, when will George R.R. Martin release “The Winds of Winter”? Whenever he damn well pleases.

Riveting.  I love when I read a lengthy treatise on mathematics and the answer in orange fish.

Source:  538

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