In a January article by Gabbing Geek’s own Ryan Garcia, he predicted the 2015 Top Ten Grossing films (domestic). Rule of thumb says that to crack the top ten, a film will need to surpass $200M+. Some of Ryan’s picks were right. Some were wrong. Where will we wind up and what could spoil Ryan’s top ten list?
First, let’s ignore the shady fantasy draft (fantasy con job is more like it) on this week’s episode of the Gabbing Geek podcast and focus on more civilized things…
RYAN’S TOP TEN PREDICTION
- Avengers: Age of Ultron
- Star Wars Episode 7
- Minions
- Hunger Games 4
- Spectre (James Bond)
- Inside Out
- Furious 7
- Tomorrowland
- Ant-Man
- Mission Impossible 5
WHAT RYAN GOT RIGHT
Ignoring the order, Ryan looks to place Avengers, SW, Minions, Inside Out, Furious 7 in the top ten. He’ll probably also nail unreleased block busters such as HG4 and Spectre in the top ten.
MI5 has an outside shot of jumping in there.
WHAT RYAN GOT WRONG
Ryan obviously missed (and we said so at the time) Jurassic World. Cut the guy some slack… he was only off about $450M on that. He also said Tomorrowland and Ant-Man would make the cut. Both of those are likely to be outside the top ten; especially Tomorrowland which was a surprise bomb.
PARTIAL CREDIT?
Ryan’s remaining honorable mentions Pan, the Hateful 8, or Pitch Perfect COULD claim one of the spots in the top ten, but probably won’t. None seems to have $200M in the tank. Pan COULD but I tend to think it will flop.
WHAT COULD SNEAK IN
In the spirit of enjoying Ryan’s shortcomings, we count down the top movies remaining this year that could sneak into the top ten box office grosses of the year.
10. Sicario
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? Slim. This one is a Hail Mary that I’d love to see win out. Sicario looks amazing, and you knooooowwwwww I love Emily Blunt, but this movie is a huge hit if it breaks $125M. Even as a surprise hit, it won’t break $200M.
9. The Intern
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? I could see this being a hit, but not a $200M hit. Devil Wears Prada, an apt comparison, made only $125M. Hathaway is a bigger star so runaway hit status for this will depend of word of mouth. Prada was actually good; will this one be good? This flick is a huge sucess at $140M. Not enough for the top ten.
8. Victor Frankenstein
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? This one is feast or famine. It either flirts with making $175M or stalls in the 30s. I think it will be a stinker, but it is a total wildcard. Unlikely to be in the list but fun to watch.
7. Revenant
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? Like Frankenstein, this one could go one of two ways. It could struggle to make $100M or it could shoot up into the $180M territory. DiCaprio has been selective on his script choices lately, so I am thinking this one will do well but fall short of the top 10.
6. Peanuts
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? Is this property too stale? Do kids still care about Snoopy or has he been replaced by Pixar and Spongebob? This will be the test because the animation looks fantastic. I wonder if the jokes will still be grounded in the 1960s. Downside comp is probably Mr. Sherman and Peabody, but if it pops this is a real contender. I could see a runaway hit that catches fire garnering $210M. We are into the realm of possibilities now.
5. In the Heart of the Sea
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? Ron Howard makes commercially viable movies. Unfortunately maritime movies have a spotty history when not directed by James Cameron. The “real life” story of Moby Dick could be as dense as the book itself or it could be a surprise disaster movie hit. If this movie connects, it is the KIND of movie that could hit $220M. I don’t think it WILL….but it COULD.
4. Bridge of Spies
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? This is where we get into the movies that have a legitimate shot. Spielberg and Hanks have some box office cache. This movie looks MUCH MORE like a Private Ryan entry than a Terminal stinker. If this movie has a strong narrative, Hanks could push this one to $225M.
3. The Martian
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? We at Gabbing Geek are optimistic. We have reservations about Ridley Scott, but we looooovvvvvvveeeeedddd this book. Matt Damon is a great actor. The trailers capture everything we liked about the book. This movie could be a hit. With Gravity as a comp, this movie could hit the $275M mark if Scott stays out of his own way. I think this one WILL make the top ten.The only reason it is #3 is I think the next two have greater upside potential.
2. Goosebumps
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? I think The Martian will make more money than Goosebumps. In our Fantasy Draft on the podcast, I went with The Martian over this film. But the premise is so unique, that I could see this one connecting with the audiences IF IT IS PASSABLE, and hitting $285M. I’m guessing this entry will embarrass me…
1. The Good Dinosaur
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? This is a the Pixar production that had troubles. ..but it IS Pixar. It opens at Thanksgiving. It is about dinosaurs and as Ryan will tell you, dinosaurs do big box office. How much trouble was here? Will Inside Out suck the oxygen out of the Pixar marketing budget? Or can this film surprise us and perform at the highest level? If this film is north of Up, it is in the neighborhood of $300M.
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